Sunday, October 24, 2010

What Did We Learn: Game 7- Cleveland 30, New Orleans 17

For the second time in three weeks, the defending Super Bowl champions were done in by that which was one of their great strengths- their offense.

Four interceptions by Drew Brees. Two of those INTs were returned by defensive end David Bowens for touchdowns. Remove those scores from the game, and the Saints win. The same can be said of the Arizona game.

Colt McCoy didn't beat anyone. The defense, as ever, did their part.

On special teams, the Cleveland coaching staff dialed up a spectacular fake punt and a very impressive lateral on a punt return. Cleveland players reported some eye gouging and crotch punching by Saints players later in the game.

One can only say the same things over and over so many times. Yes, it helped that Scott Fujita was able to recognize formations and substitutions he'd seen with the Saints, but the fact remains that if the Saints don't turn the ball over, they win the game. Cleveland scored one offensive touchdown, much like the Cardinals previously.

Now Pittsburgh looms, with the strong probability of being 4-4 after eight games. Then comes a trip to Carolina, where the Saints seldom play well.

The fact of the matter is, there are no games that the Saints can count on winning for the rest of the way out. 9-7 may be enough to make the playoffs as a wild card, but it seems entirely likely that the Saints will suffer the embarrassing fate of not making the playoffs in their title defense. They may surprise us- predicated entirely on the offense rediscovering itself- but I wouldn't put any money on it.

Early Western Conference thoughts...

Well, collectively not even ten games in, we have some genuine surprises in the West so far. We'll see over time what the longer-term trend is, but let's start in the Central Division.

Ladies and gentlemen, in first place and undefeated in regulation, I give you your Nashville Predators. They had a three-game stretch of overtime losses to Montreal, Washington, and Pittsburgh, but then righted the ship against Dallas and Pittsburgh on the road. They appear to have improved in net with the addition of Anders Lindback, and they're giving up a sterling average of 2 goals per game.

Detroit, St. Louis, and Chicago all check in with at least four wins... a 1-0 overtime win for St. Louis over Pittsburgh was particularly noteworthy, and Detroit somehow just keeps cooking along. Chicago does not appear to have corrected their goaltending woes with Marty Turco... much like in Dallas, he seems to be solid in net until the waning minutes, and then fails to make that one key save.

Finally, Columbus is showing some interesting sparks with a pair of victories over Chicago. They're still wildly inconsistent, but if the season ended today, all five Central Division teams would be in.

Over in the Pacific, Marc Crawford has the Stars up and humming... a couple of key victories over Detroit and St. Louis, along with what is currently the 6th-rated offense in the league have them off to an impressive start. I'm not convinced that their blue line is deep enough to sustain a run, but they're rocking so far.

Los Angeles is right there with the Stars, as key wins over Vancouver and Colorado have them rolling. They recently lost G Erick Ersberg to the KHL, but he wasn't exactly a favorite of the coaching staff. D Drew Doughty has a hand injury that will keep him out for a week.

San Jose, Anaheim, and Phoenix are kind of a mess right now... the Sharks have beaten up on some weaker sisters, Anaheim can't keep the puck out of its own net, and the Coyotes are just kind of all over the place. The Coyotes looked strong in their opener against Boston, then didn't win another game except for a strong win over the Kings.

Finally, the Northwest is pretty much the weakest division in hockey right now, more so than the Southeast. Calgary is on top of the division playing .500 hockey, followed closely by Colorado. Both are entertaining teams to watch, but have had some nightmarish games defensively. Vancouver, who should be running away with things, is also playing .500 hockey despite massive upgrades along the blue line.

Careful followers of the discussion here and at Ace of Spades HQ will know that I'm not much of a believer in Roberto Luongo, and I think that will play itself out this year as well. Much like the San Jose teams of recent years, goaltending is what stands between Vancouver and the Cup.

Finally, Minnesota and Edmonton are in rebuilding mode, though Edmonton's Jordan Eberle is exciting to watch. That said, the Oilers have dropped four straight as of this posting...

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see who can sustain the pace in the West. Any thoughts?

Saturday, October 23, 2010

NBA Contraction, and why you should care...

Hi, folks...

Just as a heads-up, we may have a new feature for you here at Moron Hockey in the very near future. That is, as soon as I can get out from under the organic chemistry dragon and some other things resolve themselves. We're very excited to do this, and thanks for joining us.

David Stern has openly spoken about NBA contraction in the interest of cutting overhead. No franchises were mentioned by name, but some obvious targets would be Sacramento (they want a new arena, and the city isn't budging), Memphis (you can hear the players rapping on the court during most games), Golden State (depending on the success of their proposed sale), and the Clippers (who can't give away tickets).

So how would that affect the NHL?

There are a lot of folks out there who feel like contracting the NHL would be a good thing. They feel like the talent pool is watered down (debatable, but not ridiculous), and that elimination of the Sun Belt teams would be a good thing (hotly contestable).

Nonetheless, the bottom line (pun unintended) is that though it's probably just hot air, it's still an open acknowledgment of the fact that the NBA is spending money that it doesn't necessarily have. The NHL has had a couple of franchises flirt with folding, although the landscape is substantially different in the NHL.

If the decision were made that any of the Sun Belt franchises were untenable, Canadian cities like Winnipeg, Quebec, Hamilton, and Saskatoon would be sitting there with arms wide open for them to relocate north of the border.

But let's remember something: two Sun Belt franchises have been in enough trouble that they publicly discussed moving. Two "traditional" markets- Pittsburgh and Buffalo- came just as close to moving. The Islanders have a hard time drawing fans to Nassau, and so forth.

Undeniably, franchises like Atlanta and Miami don't draw well at the gate, despite their significant TV markets. Part of that is directly related to their sometimes laughable on-ice product, but an equal problem is the oft-overlooked issue that hockey fans in their markets are often from other hockey markets- not homegrown fans.

So what is the solution?

To my way of thinking, the NHL doesn't do enough in its non-traditional markets to build the sport. Using the Dallas Stars as a model (where they built 7-10 rinks around the D/FW area), you have no equivalent market penetration in Miami, Phoenix, Tampa, Atlanta, or Nashville. In point of fact, Nashville (a previous residence of mine) had a total of two rinks. They drafted their first Nashvillian in the last couple of years (Blake Geoffrion, grandson of Hall of Famer Boom Boom Geoffrion), and celebrated by closing the rink in Franklin, TN, right as I was leaving.

The sport sold well in the early 90s because of aggressive market penetration by its existing franchises, along with a good contract with ESPN. The increased visibility led to the explosion of minor league teams around the country, and you had a boom in USA Hockey registry.

So it begs the question- is it time to abandon Versus and crawl back to ESPN (if they'll take the NHL back)? Under the circumstances, yes.

Opinions?

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

What Did We Learn Game 5- New Orleans 20, Arizona 30

Hi, folks. Sorry about the delay with this post- it's been a bit of a weird week, with an organic chemistry exam today and a car to pick up later this week.

Anyway, as of this afternoon, John Carney and DeShawn Wynn have been cut, and replaced with safety Matt Giordano (no idea) and former Seahawk Julius Jones. This would seem to indicate that Pierre Thomas' ankle is in worse shape than we realized, and that Reggie Bush may not be back to action as quickly as hoped.

So let's settle down and review this cluster (expletive deleted) of a game...

First of all, Max Hall didn't beat anyone. He threw a pick, fumbled twice, and went 17 of 27 for 168 yards and a pick. The Cards' running game didn't beat anyone- they had 41 yards on 27 carries, and the only semi-offensive touchdown they had was a Levi Brown recovery of a Max Hall fumble in the end zone.

The Saints' defense kept the Arizona offense out of the end zone, even when given the ball at the Saints' 3-yard line. Touchdowns were scored on two fumble recoveries and an interception returned for a TD.

The defense did its job, pure and simple. Four sacks, five QB hits, and an interception. That said, four fumbles were put on the ground within reach of the defense, and nobody got to them. Yeah, the ball didn't bounce in their direction, but...

No, this game was lost in two phases: offense and special teams. Let's do the special teams first...

John Carney is gone today because he blew a 29-yard field goal. That FG would have given the Saints the lead at 16-13, and changed the complexion of the game. It also more or less counts as a turnover- a scoring opportunity was thwarted. As before, 29 yards needs to be automatic. Anything less is simply unacceptable.

The kickoff coverage team yielded two 50-plus-yard returns to LaRod Stephens-Howling. Each one led to a Jay Feely field goal. The punt coverage teams did their jobs.

And then there's the offense, and this is really the story...

Ladell Betts tipped a catchable ball at the Saints' 2-yard line directly to Arizona LB Greg Toler. The resulting touchdown tied the game at 10. For an encore performance, he fumbled the ball straight to Kerry Rhodes, who cheerfully scooted into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown.

Drew Brees threw three INTs on the day. The first was on the aforementioned tip, and the second and third were when he had to press with the Saints down ten-plus points. The third was the Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie return for a TD while the Saints were (on paper) still in position to tie the game.

Again, we come to drops... Colston dropped a couple of drive-extending passes, Betts had his great tip, Devery Henderson... you get the idea. Part of the problem is that teams don't respect the Saints' running game at all, and drop 8 into coverage. There were and have been remarkably few receivers uncovered or in single coverage. The one time there was that situation was when Robert Meachem got behind coverage late for a 38-yard desperation heave that turned into the Saints' second TD.

It is worth asking whether the interior line is capable of blocking anyone at this point. The bottom line is that there are no longer any even probable wins left on the schedule. Tampa Bay looks like they're for real... Cleveland nearly knocked off Atlanta... nobody really knows what to think of Seattle or St. Louis, and the other AFC North teams appear to be quite real.

So now what in the short term? Well, the Cardinals could see the bread-and-butter screen passes coming, and Brees often threw the ball away in those situations. In any event, the three field goals kicked by the Saints were red-zone field goals. Until they correct their red-zone offense, wins will be tough to come by. Looking at the upcoming four games (at Tampa, vs Cleveland, vs Pittsburgh, and at Carolina), it's hard to feel good about any of them.

The rushing game is carrying the day for most teams this season, and it will now be up to Sean Payton to adapt his offense to what the defense is allowing: short and middle passes until the defense tries to take those away. It will also require Reggie Bush to do something he has to date been unable to do: run effectively with 20-25 touches in a game until Pierre Thomas returns.

The Saints are 3-2, and trail Atlanta by two games and Tampa by half a game. The playoffs are still a possibility, but unlikely until significant offensive and special teams adjustments happen.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

What Did We Learn Game 4- Carolina 14, New Orleans 16

First of all, a warm welcome to my small legion of readers over at Facebook. Catherine E. made a remark that I should go ahead and put this up at a blog where it's publicly available, as opposed to hiding it over at Facebook, so here we are.

For those of you who haven't been here before, Moron Hockey is a satellite blog of Ace of Spades HQ (ace.mu.nu), where Drew M. and I both offer political prognostications. You won't get politics here, unless it directly affects professional hockey or football. There's plenty of political stuff out there, and I'd hope that sports allows us a respite from a rather heated time in our nation.

As the season progresses, you'll see more posts on both football and hockey- as the title of the blog suggests, this is supposed to be primarily a hockey blog, but it makes no sense to have it go dark while the NHL isn't playing. I hope you'll make this a regular stop, and get involved in the discussion. If you'd like us to cover other teams (Geoff, that means you with the Bengals), please let us know in the comments, and we'll see what we can do. If you are so inclined, please follow us on Twitter, and you'll be alerted to any new posts we publish.

So about Sunday's game with the Panthers...

Let me preface this by saying that here in Kansas City, we were treated to the Green Bay-Detroit game, while most of the rest of the country got Panthers-Saints. If the NFL Network decides to show it on NFL Replay, there may be a follow-up to this post.

First of all, the Saints were 3-7 in the last five years against the Panthers coming into today's game. John Fox (who seems the odds-on favorite to replace Tom Coughlin with the Giants) just seems to know how to play Sean Payton, and it doesn't matter what the situation is. I would challenge anyone to name me a time the Saints have won comfortably over the Panthers in the Sean Payton era.

As many have pointed out, the Saints are getting everyone's best effort from their opponents, and the winless Panthers were no exception. Fumbles by Lance Moore (stretching for the goal line) and Chris Ivory (rookie mistake) denied the Saints a chance at at least ten points. Two plays- the blown coverage to Jonathan Stewart, and the well-diagnosed but poorly-defended DeAngelo Williams run- provided the scoring for Carolina.

Drew Brees protected the ball well today, and was the victim of drops by Devery Henderson (2), Robert Meachem (1), and Jeremy Shockey (2). He went 33 of 48 for 275 yards and a TD, which is uncharacteristically below 70% completion for him. Again, if the drops aren't dropped...

There was a stretch in the game where deep in Carolina territory, Payton called for three straight passes, despite a very respectable rushing attack on the day. Chris Ivory rushed for 67 yards on 12 carries, and Ladell Betts had 47 yards on 13 carries. The Saints ran for 121 yards on 29 attempts, and it can be argued that Payton kind of outsmarted himself on a few possessions.

The offense had 79 plays to Carolina's 47, and held the ball for 38:22.

And still, the Saints only just eked out the victory.

The Saints are winning games on the strength of the mojo they picked up last season: they still expect to win every game, and I will remind you that they'd be 4-0 save for the Hartley miss in OT. As of this evening, the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers have fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only the Kansas City Chiefs (!) as the remaining unbeaten team. Given that they face a pissed-off Indianapolis Colts team next week, I don't expect any unbeatens to remain after week 5.

As ever, the three victories the Saints have are ones they would have given away in the past. This is a team that knows how to win in pretty much any situation, except being down by double digits. With Pittsburgh looming in the distance, they have four weeks to figure out how to get the offense untracked. With any luck, the upcoming games at Arizona, Tampa, and then home with Cleveland will assist in that regard.

It would appear that Sean Payton has a pair of power rushers on the team- if he'll use them. It is a Payton trademark to use his smaller, shiftier backs to spread the defense out and beat them with the screen pass. At the same time, the thing that has been most noticeably missing from the Saints this year is the downhill running that Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton brought to the table last year. If (and I emphasize if) he's willing to use Ivory and Betts in that fashion, the smash-mouth football element has a chance of working.

Some of that also depends on the interior linemen (Goodwin, Nicks, Evans) getting their acts together as well. The Saints have given up sacks up the middle, and that's on them. These guys are the strength of the Saints' offensive line, and they're not acting like it right now.

I don't know how you get the receivers to stop dropping balls. I haven't seen enough of Brees this year to know if he's throwing with the same accuracy he had last year. That said, based on the past years, if he puts up 50 throws, it is reasonable to expect him to complete 36-40 of those. At this level, if the receiver makes contact with his hands, you kind of have to expect them to catch the ball.

Defensively, a tip of the cap has to go to Sedrick Ellis. Yes, the Panthers are defensively challenged, but Ellis defended two passes, had a sack, and had another key tackle for a loss. The Saints sacked Jimmy Clausen (who for the moment won't be mistaken for Peyton Manning) three times and held him to 11 of 21 for 146 yards and a TD. Two of those sacks came on the crucial last drive.

On the ground, DeAngelo Williams (who is an elite back, despite his team) picked up 86 yards on 13 carries, including his 39-yard TD run. The Carolina rushing attack was largely held in check by the defense, and is worthy of praise.

The story of the day, of course, was the special teams play- 46-year-old John Carney comes in off the street and kicks three field goals (32, 32, and 25 yards), and Courtney Roby was the beneficiary of a colossal hit by Jason Kyle (second week in a row) that forced a fumble on a punt deep in Carolina territory.

The good thing is that the Saints can improve, and not losing is an improvement. The bad thing is that the Saints need to quit screwing around and get it together. This should have been a thirty-point day. Instead- as it always seems to be with Carolina- it was a nailbiter.

Next Sunday, it's off to Glendale, Arizona, to take on the Cards. It appears that rookie Max Hall will start at QB, so this is another should-win for the Saints. The Cards did their part by getting the crap stomped out of them by San Diego, 41-10. The Saints would do well to make things happen out there.

Updates- Reggie Bush feels like he's going to be back after four weeks. That would put him back in the lineup for the Cleveland game.

No word on Pierre Thomas' ankle. Roman Harper was already sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Chris Reis and Pierson Prioleau (his replacements) were both injured.

Finally, an odd fact- Tulane, LSU, and the Saints all won on the same weekend. This is an incredibly rare feat unto itself, but would you believe that Tulane outscored both LSU and the Saints? Yep, 17-14 over Rutgers. Now about whether or not Les Miles should be coaching even middle school football...

Monday, May 31, 2010

2-0, Blackhawks...

...and this was playoff hockey tonight. Each team gave up a hardworking goal (Marian Hossa makes his annual appearance in the playoffs, Simon Gagne scores his 8th on the power play), and Ben Eager scores the game-winner for his first playoff goal.

Both goaltenders played well- the Eager goal was an unfortunate misplay on Michael Leighton's part, and it just beat him high and wide of his glove. This came 28 seconds after the first one, and proved to be the game-winner.

Hits were aplenty in this game... Chris Pronger and Dustin Byfuglien treated each other like pinatas, and Daniel Carcillo just about obliterated Jeff Carter with a hit intended for Tomas Kopecky.

Scanning the box score, it looks like Eager and Pronger each took a 10-minute misconduct at the end of the game. Game 3 goes back to Philadelphia, and the Flyers have their work cut out for them.

So far, Chicago's had the luckier bounces of a fairly even series... it will be interesting to see what the home crowd does for the Flyers.

Here's a link to the box score and recap. Have at it!

Friday, May 21, 2010

Turning points... (updated)

Well, it would appear we have a series in the East, after Montreal laid a whoopin' on the Flyers in the Bell Centre. Jaroslav Halak was superb, Chris Pronger looked old, slow, and confused, and the Flyers' offense was completely out of sync. Mike Cammalleri led off the scoring for Montreal, and P.K. Subban had three assists.

A series that looked like it would be a laugher for Philadelphia is now very much in question, but not to require panic if you're a Flyers fan. Nonetheless, Game 4 may very well decide the series. It is quite plausible to expect an overtime game, with the winner going on to take the series. Game 3 brought the momentum to even- quite a feat when you consider what an easy time Philly had with Montreal in the first two games.

The Habs kicked the Flyers' butts up and down the ice, and the Flyers must have a bounce-back game, or risk getting stomped out of the playoffs in short order.

In the meantime, Chicago played one of the least-inspired third periods I've ever seen, and Antti Niemi demonstrated himself to be a playoff goaltender. He single-handedly kept Chicago in a game they should have lost badly. Patrick Marleau emerged from his usual playoff doldrums to score two (and didn't miss a hat trick by much), and Evgeni Nabokov played rather well.

Dustin Byfuglien scored on a textbook play in overtime to send San Jose to the hotel down 3-0, and likely out of the playoffs on Sunday.

What to make of the situation? Evgeni Nabokov is going to cement his reputation as being unable to win the big one (and fuel discussion that the Sharks should have traded Nabokov as opposed to Bryzgalov), and we will hear much more about the reliable playoff disappearance of Joe Thornton.

Chicago was assumed to have weak goaltending- and has in several games- but Niemi is playing well enough to carry things, and Chicago's offense will likely hand them the Stanley Cup... but then again, that's what everyone said about Washington and Pittsburgh against Montreal.

5/22/10, 6:15 EDT

Well, that should settle that. Philadelphia just owned Montreal in the Bell Centre, and would seem to be setting up a Philadelphia-Chicago showdown. We shall see...