Of the six NFC playoff teams from last year (New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay, and Philadelphia), two are completely dead in the water, and the remaining four aren't exactly bathing themselves in glory.
The successful teams this year largely are playing good defense and have a solid running game. It seems at this point that if your quarterback throws for 300 yards, you're very likely to lose. As examples, I offer you Kansas City, the New York Giants, Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, the New York Jets, New England... you get the idea.
Name me a quarterback who is having an awesome season. I can't do it- the usual suspects are not hitting a lot of dramatic deep balls for touchdowns.
We'll get to the AFC in a moment, but the sexy picks for the Super Bowl from the NFC- Dallas, San Francisco, Minnesota, Green Bay- are largely out of it. Green Bay still has a shot- as their defense really put it together yesterday- but it's hard to feel terribly good about anyone in the NFC other than Atlanta and the Giants at this point. Not just because I'm a Saints fan, by the way- Atlanta is showing a perplexing tendency to let teams hang around.
So let's consider what we saw yesterday in the NFC South.
Tampa did what the Saints couldn't against Arizona- play smart, ball-protecting football and minimize mistakes. The quarterback-challenged Cards threw an INT within tying field-goal range, and Tampa continues to build its confidence. They play the Falcons this coming week, and that will tell us a lot about what's going to happen in the NFC South.
Carolina hung in there with a coaching staff that's completely mailing it in, and lost to a rapidly-improving St. Louis team. They have the Saints this coming weekend in Charlotte, and this is dangerous territory for the Saints.
And now we get to the Saints.
Protect the football, from arguably the most physical defense in the NFL. Drew Brees threw one bad pick and fumbled a scoring opportunity on a safety blitz.
Enter the Saints' defense. One fumble recovery (by Darren Sharper, no less). One pick (career first by Leigh Torrence). One fourth-and-four from the Saints' 40, defeated. One 52-yard miss from Jeff Reed- and it led directly to the game-tying field goal from Garrett Hartley. And- most importantly- the Saints' D held the Steelers' offense out of the end zone from the six-inch line.
Finesse team, my ass.
Garrett Hartley had two must-make kicks. No problem- although I really wish he'd clean up that hook. Emmanuel Sanders was electric for the Steelers on a couple of big returns- one kickoff and one punt. The fake field goal call completely stunned the Steelers, forcing them to call timeout. On the opposite side, Jeff Reed missed a crucial 52-yard field goal (no shame in that) that changed the momentum of the game and led to the late 1st-half tying field goal.
The Steelers' defense is rated number one against the run for a reason. They demonstrated that ferocity against the Saints, who rushed for a total of 30 yards. The Saints' defense is ranked 16th against the rush, but held the Steelers to a total of 108 yards on the ground and one TD. The TD happened on the same call as the one that the Steelers won their overtime encounter with Atlanta on, and this one went for 38 yards.
The Steelers are not as impressive against the pass, ranked 25th, and gave up 305 yards to Drew Brees, as well as two touchdowns. They did recover a Brees fumble on a safety blitz, and intercepted him once. The Saints, on the other hand, are ranked 3rd against the pass. They gave up 195 yards to Roethlisberger, with one fumble recovery in the passing game and intercepting Roethlisberger once.
The story of this game comes down to turnovers, as ever. On the scoresheet, it only lists four, total- a fumble and an interception for each team. Add to that a missed FG, a blown fourth-and-four, and a goal-line stand, and you make a strong argument for the Steelers having left about ten points on the table.
What now? The Saints have what should be a tune-up game against Carolina in Charlotte. It ain't gonna be that way. This game will be annoyingly close, as ever. If the Saints can extend a lead on Carolina, I'll begin to believe they're really putting it together.
Finally, some thoughts on the AFC...
The class of the conference appears to be New England, the Jets, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. New England quietly keeps winning, the Jets (aside from the head-scratchingly poor offensive play this past week) have a solid winning formula, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh will beat themselves (and their opponents) silly each week.
Not to be overlooked are the Chiefs, Raiders, Indy, Houston, and Tennessee. The Chiefs have a shockingly good defense, the Raiders seem to have found themselves... Indy is, well, Indy, and Houston and Tennessee have delivered notice that they aren't going away either.
Who can say? It's easier to pick out the teams that are history- Buffalo, Denver, San Diego, Cincinnati, Cleveland- than to pick out a clear favorite. Everything from here on out in the AFC will depend on staying injury-free.
Anyway, we shall see. In the Who Dat Nation, however, there is a sigh of relief, as the ship is righted... for one more week.
