Thursday, April 15, 2010

Western Conference, the sequel...

Well, I didn't check the schedule closely enough, so there's only one game on the docket this evening, and it's going to overtime as I write this.

#3 Vancouver vs #6 Los Angeles

Vancouver is easily the least impressive of the home seeds in the playoffs. Roberto Luongo is the key in this series... the Olympics showed in no uncertain terms that he'll make that first save, but somehow, the puck keeps getting away from him. Without some very aggressive backchecking, as well as some real defensive hyper-awareness, Vancouver is going to have trouble. They've seemed to be rather weak down the stretch, but you can't overlook the scoring capability of the Canucks. The Sedins have been very impressive, and Vancouver has very solid depth up and down the lineup. If they play defensively responsible hockey, they'll take care of business.

That said, Los Angeles will have plenty to say about the outcome of this series... and Mikael Samuelsson just scored for Vancouver to finish the game. Jonathan Quick is very good in net, Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty are excellent on the backline, and the Kings have a solid group of forwards (Michal Handzus, Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, et cetera).

Coming off of tonight's game, where Vancouver outshot LA 44-27, you pretty much saw what you can expect... a lot of shots out of Vancouver and a decent night out of Los Angeles, taking the game to overtime.

Bottom line? Jonathan Quick can steal some games for LA... it took Vancouver many more shots to get the winner past Quick. The Modin goal on Luongo (goal #4 in the game) was a stoppable shot... low on the glove side, far post. Luongo may get them past LA, but against any teams with better scoring punch, you have to wonder. I'll go Vancouver in six, but not with much confidence.

#2 Chicago vs #7 Nashville

Oh, this kills me. Of all the teams in the playoffs, this is the group my Predators match up with most poorly, as the 4-2 head-to-head record demonstrates.

Chicago has dazzling firepower. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa... Duncan Keith, Dustin Bfyuglien, Brent Seabrook on the blue line... and yet- how solid are they in net? Antti Niemi will get the nod over Cristobal Huet, but the question marks are there. There was a movement in hockey this year that seemed to not worry about net presence (Washington, Chicago, Philadelphia, and so forth), and the magic question becomes whether or not Chicago's torrid scoring pace can overcome their defensive deficiencies over a seven-game series.

Nashville is the polar opposite. Pekka Rinne will get the start in net, and there were more than a few raised eyebrows when he didn't get a nod for the Finnish Olympic team. In his last playoff appearance, he struggled a bit, and Dan Ellis came in to put the fear of God into the Red Wings.

Nashville's great strength is its defensemen... Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Dan Hamhuis- they round out what challenges for the best defensive six in the league. Suter just missed out on a 20-goal season, and their size is actually a very good matchup against the small but fast Chicago forwards.

Nashville has a 30-goal scorer in Patric Hornqvist, and has some interesting options in JP Dumont, Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, and Martin Erat. They don't have the size necessary to beat up on the Chicago backliners (the days of Vernon Fiddler et al are by the wayside), but if they get good production from their defensemen, there is enough size up front to pick up the garbage.

My pick? Reluctantly, Chicago in six, but this one's a close one. I figure an overtime game will largely determine the momentum of this series.

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